The conclave guessing game: lessons from a numbers geek

Cardinals from around the world in the Sistine Chapel March 12, 2013, as they began the conclave to elect a new pope. (CNS photo/L’Osservatore Romano via Reuters)

VATICAN CITY — A year-ago today, as the world’s cardinals solemnly filed into the Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope, news outlets, blogs and betting sites were abuzz with papal prognostications.

I wanted to take an informal stab at it myself using some tips from the U.S. statistician, Nate Silver, who had correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

I thought it’d be a fun experiment to apply some of the approaches he had outlined in his book, “The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t.”

Here’s what I looked at in the few days before the conclave:

• What were the challenges facing the world and the church in 1978 and 2005?
• What “winning” qualities did Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI — the men who were elected those years — possess?

From there, I drafted a rough list of what church leaders and others were saying in 2013 about the pressing challenges.

Here are just a few examples:

Shut off from the outside world, cardinals from around the world cast ballots to elect a new pontiff in a conclave that began March 12, 2013. (CNS photo/L’Osservatore Romano)

• Religious freedom, oppression in parts of Asia; persecution and violence in the Middle East and Africa; infringements in the western world.
• Secularism and globalization.
• Latin America losing Catholics, Asia growing.
• Church needing to be “attractive,” new evangelization and need to be “outspoken.”
• Making Jesus the center of liturgy, lives, prayer.
• Problem of sex abuse.
• Catechism and solid foundations of faith.
• Attention to young people.
• Orthodoxy, importance of Catholic identity for universities, charities.
• Lapsed Catholics; family; sacraments.
• Vocations.

Then I scribbled down some of the winning qualities that people were looking for and would be needed to face the challenges:

• A spiritual leader (strong prayer life).
• Energy, strength to travel; but how young/old is too young/old?
• Can clean up Curia/problems that make church look bad.
• Makes faith attractive.
• Smart; simple, clear communication.
• Honest, down-to-earth.
• See young people as important.
• Represents the message the church wants to send the world.
• From Asia, Latin America, Africa.
• Charismatic; humble; multilingual.

Cardinals entering the Sistine Chapel in prayer March 12, 2013, as they begin the conclave. (CNS photo/L’Osservatore Romano via Reuters)

Silver said also to list any biases that might affect the way the data is read. So I listed the common opinion that the pope “not be Italian” and the need for someone “young” or with “strength of mind and body,” as Pope Benedict himself had said.

Then I looked at several cardinals and their lives, and rated them according to how well each man possessed the needed/winning qualities to confront today’s challenges. I calculated what chances they had of winning, of losing, and of having won in the past.

I only had time to look at 14 cardinals out of the 117 electors. But one of those men was Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio, whom I gave an 80% chance of winning and a 60% chance of losing (mostly because of his age — he was 76, and lack of languages).

A print-out of cardinal-electors, showing my Nate Silver-inspired stat results on March 12, 2013, for Cardinal Bergoglio’s chances of being elected pope.

But those pretty good percentages put him behind what I had calculated for Pope Francis’ close friend, 70-year-old Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras. I had given him a 90% chance of winning and a 10% chance of losing, noting his focus on the poor, writings on globalization, his strong voice for Latin America, language abilities, courage to “put out into the deep,” his work on sanctity of life; and importance of evoking God in a secular world.

Cardinal Luis Tagle of Manila got the next highest marks with a 90% chance of winning, but a 20% chance of losing (too young) noting the following “winning” qualities: “Asian, rides the bus, humble, Vatican II scholar, has ‘star power,’ intellect,” communicates clearly, with focus on youth.

Window of the Holy Spirit above Bernini’s sculpture, “The Throne of St. Peter,” in St. Peter’s Basilica Feb. 19, 2012. (CNS photo/Paul Haring)

The good thing about Silver’s approach is you’re supposed to adjust the percentages as you collect more data and I didn’t have that much time to find out more about Cardinal Bergoglio. Had I known he was another friend of public transport, I would have boosted his Win score up to 85%!

But probably the best lesson Silver offers is to never forget the limitations posed by human nature, our biases and our limited access to all the information out there.

We want to try to predict the future and be sure about what’s going to happen. But, he said we should be more humble about our ability to perceive and predict the world. And then when you add the powerful presence of the Holy Spirit at work, well, then all bets are off!

It’s never too early to think about Christmas wishlists…

Pope Francis arrives for his weekly general audience in St. Peter’s Square Nov. 20, 2013. (CNS photo/Paul Haring)

VATICAN CITY — Have you attended one of the pope’s weekly general audiences in St. Peter’s Square?

If so and you’d like a memento of that day, you should know that you can order online a DVD of Vatican Television’s full coverage of the event.

Obviously anyone can purchase the DVDs and you can pick any general audience spanning from April 21, 2010 to today’s. Those dates include some historic gatherings like Pope Benedict’s last general audience Feb. 27.

The Italian-based website www.vaticanum.com has partnered with the Vatican for a while now, helping people around the world order and receive print, audio and visual media produced by Vatican outlets as well as some religious articles.

In fact, with the Christmas countdown now at “35 Days to Go,” it may not be too early to look for some special gifts from the Vatican.

The site offers things like:

• Official papal calendars.
• Daily planners with artwork from the Vatican Museums.
• Books from the Vatican Publishing House (with a search feature filtering by language).
• The pope’s official portrait.
• Rosaries.

Some unique offerings include:

• 

  Cardinals entering the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel March 12 as they begin the conclave to elect a successor to Pope Benedict XVI. (CNS photo/L’Osservatore Romano via Reuters)

  A double CD titled “Music of the Conclave,” with the complete live recordings of the liturgical music sung by the Sistine Chapel Choir and the cardinal electors chanting before entering the conclave that eventually elected Pope Francis.

• A four-CD box set of “the only recording ever” of Pope Benedict praying the entire rosary in Latin.
• (Though they’re sold out…) the official and misspelled “LESUS” medal of Pope Francis’ pontificate.
• A stuffed “Bedtime Bunny” that children can take to bed and, when they press its tummy, helps them recite a classic bedtime prayer.

 

Espionage at the Vatican

VATICAN CITY — Claims of eavesdropping on the Vatican are nothing new.

But it’s hard to imagine any current foreign snooping could match the spying frenzy of the Cold War when the communist “East” and democratic “West” were locked in an ideological battle.

Karol Wojtyla receiving the woolen pallium during his installation as Pope John Paul II Oct. 22, 1978. (CNS photo by Arturo Mari)

After Polish Cardinal Karol Wojtyla was elected Pope John Paul II in 1978, the Vatican did come under increased scrutiny as it was seen to be a decisive player in the anti-communist chess game.

Apparently double agent priests infiltrated the upper echelons of the Vatican and Czechoslovakian spies reportedly bugged the private studio of then-Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Agostino Casaroli by planting a hidden microphone inside a statue of Our Lady.

Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger was spied on for three decades before he became pope by the Stasi — East Germany’s communist secret police.

Pope John Paul II greeting Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger at a Munich airport in November 1980 at the end of a papal visit to Germany. (CNS photo from KNA)

According to one agent, the cardinal prefect of the Vatican’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith “would have an influence on the growth of anti-communist attitudes in the Catholic Church, especially in Latin America.” Agents wrote that Pope John Paul asked Cardinal Ratzinger to organize help for “counterrevolutionary activities in Poland” after the rise of the Solidarity movement in 1980.

Details of the Stasi’s activities were published in 2005 by the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. The Stasi archives show there was one agent in the Vatican who provided “exact details” of the 1978 conclave that elected Pope John Paul II.

The newspaper noted that the secret police had kept an extensive card file on then-Cardinal Ratzinger and had described him as “the most decided opponent of communism in the Vatican.” Spies also described him as appearing “initially shy in conversation,” but that he also possessed “a winning charm.”

Soviet-bloc governments tried to get their Eastern European theology students to spy on the Vatican when they studied in Rome.

Jesuit Father Robert Graham pictured in Rome in 1992. Father Graham, who died in 1997, was considered an authority on the role of Pope Pius XII during World War II. (CNS photo/Agostino Bono)

“The poor Soviets believed secret sources more than public information, but that was an illusion,” the late-U.S. Jesuit Father Robert Graham, a historian and longtime Vatican observer, told CNS in 1993.

“They had to employ very complicated means to get the same information that was in the newspapers,” he said in this old CNS story that ran on page 12 in the Anchor, the diocesan paper of Fall River, Mass.

One longtime Vatican reporter claimed at the time that two Hungarian agents in the 1960s went directly to him instead of to his tidied and edited news reports.

He said the outrageous stories he made up for them were exceeded only by the outrageously bad vodka they gave him each Christmas.

Cardinals, free to tweet again, send limited observations

ROME — The cardinal electors who voted in the conclave were cut off from all forms of external communication for the duration of the two-day voting period. But once the conclave was over, they did not immediately fill up their Twitter account with reflections on their experiences or their wishes for the new pope.

Most likely the cardinals didn’t have too much time for that. Immediately after the Pope Francis was announced to the world in St. Peter’s Square, the cardinals joined one another for dinner, then many of them gave interviews or were part of press briefings.

Since then, they had Mass with the new pope and a meeting with him, so they have not had a lot of free time on their hands.

But some have found the chance to send a few messages to their Twitter followers after the few days of imposed silence.

South African Cardinal Wilfrid Napier sent several tweets after the election of Pope Francis beginning with the March 14 message about the pope’s choice of name, quoting him: “I shall be called Francis, in memory of St Francis of Assisi!”

The cardinal described the pope’s name choice as “words that made a grown man cry with joy and wonder! More was to follow.”

He also sent the following tweets:

Surely man for the moment Pope Francis insisted on standing to greet & be greeted by his brother Cardinals. So doing he asked: Pray for me!—
Cardinal Napier (@CardinalNapier) March 15, 2013

Coming from Mass in Sistine Chapel, switched official car for bus carrying Cardinals. In morning slips into Chapel to pray without any fuss—
Cardinal Napier (@CardinalNapier) March 15, 2013

Last 2 days quite unreal. Mass with Pope Francis in Santa Martha Chapel, Breakfast, Lunch & Supper with him sitting at a different table!—
Cardinal Napier (@CardinalNapier) March 15, 2013

New York Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan resumed tweeting March 13, saying;

On this joyous day, we have a new Holy Father, Pope Francis I. With joy in our hearts, we declare “Ad Multos Annos!”
blog.archny.org/index.php/stat…—
Cardinal Dolan (@CardinalDolan) March 14, 2013

His other tweets the next day were short and sweet :

Pope Francis obviously won our hearts because he's the new pope.
nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Arc…—
Cardinal Dolan (@CardinalDolan) March 14, 2013

Viva il Papa Francesco! Let me share with you my latest blog post from Rome.
blog.archny.org/index.php/viva…—
Cardinal Dolan (@CardinalDolan) March 14, 2013

Cardinal Roger M. Mahony, retired archbishop of Los Angeles, also resumed tweeting March 13 with this message:

It happened! First time for a Pope from the southern hemisphere and from Latin America. I'm ecstatic! Pope Francis I will be a great gift!—
Cardinal Mahony (@CardinalMahony) March 13, 2013

His subsequent tweets revealed even more joy in the moment:

Don't you feel the new energy in the Church, and being shared with one another? We will experience a new Pentecost as the early Christians.—
Cardinal Mahony (@CardinalMahony) March 14, 2013

Mass with Pope Francis: moving from HIGH Church to LOW and humble Church! What a blessing that we are encountering Jesus without trappings!—
Cardinal Mahony (@CardinalMahony) March 15, 2013

Humo Blanco de la Capilla Sixtina señala nuevo pontífice

CIUDAD DEL VATICANO (CNS) – Sorprendiendo a las multitudes a nivel mundial, nubes de humo blancas brotarón de la chimenea en el techo de la Capilla Sixtina este 13 de marzo, lo que indica un Papa ha sido elegido en la quinta votación del cónclave.

La señal de humo se activó a las 7:05 p.m. Los 115 cardenales se reunieron para elegir el 266 sucesor de San Pedro, el nuevo líder de la Iglesia Católica. Los votos anteriores, tomados a finales del 12 de marzo, y dos votos a la mañana siguiente, resultarón en nubes de humo negro.

El Vaticano estima que dentro de una hora el cardenal Jean-Louis Tauran, el diácono cardenal de alto rango, saldrá al balcón de la Basílica de San Pedro y confirmará la elección con la frase “Habemus Papam.” (Tenemos Papa ).

11 U.S. cardinals to enter conclave

Eleven U.S. cardinals will take part in the conclave beginning tomorrow to elect a new pope. (CNS graphic/Paul Haring and Nancy Phelan Wiechec)

Alphabetical list of cardinal electors’ first names in Latin

Balcony where the name of the cardinal elected pope will be announced in Latin. (CNS/Paul Haring)

VATICAN CITY — Here is an alphabetical list of the cardinal electors’ first names in Latin, in the accusative case, which is likely to be that used when announcing the name of the new pope.

Several cardinals are listed twice because they may be referred to by their baptismal name, given name or religious name. For instance, Indian Cardinal Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal, major archbishop of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church, is listed twice because the “Acta Apostolicae Sedis,” (The Official Acts of the Holy See) has used both versions. U.S. Cardinal William J. Levada and Dutch Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk of Utrecht are listed twice because “Gulielmum” and “Villelmum” are both acceptable versions of their name.

Albertum
– Albert Malcolm Ranjith of Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Aloisium
– Luis Antonio Tagle of Manila, Philippines.
– Lluis Martinez Sistach of Barcelona, Spain.

Andream
– Andre Vingt-Trois of Paris.

Angelum
– Angelo Amato, prefect of the Congregation for Saints’ Causes.
– Angelo Bagnasco of Genoa, Italy.
– Angelo Comastri, archpriest of St. Peter’s Basilica.
– Angelo Scola of Milan.

Ansgarium
– Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

Antonium
– Antonio Canizares Llovera, prefect of the Vatican Congregation for Divine Worship and the Sacraments.
– Antonios Naguib, former Coptic Catholic patriarch, Egypt.
- Anthony Olubunmi Okogie of Lagos, Nigeria.

Antonium Mariam
– Antonio Maria Rouco Varela of Madrid.
– Antonio Maria Veglio, president of the Pontifical Council for Migrants and Travelers.

Attilium
– Attilio Nicora, president emeritus of the Administration of the Patrimony of the Apostolic See.

Audrys
– Audrys Juozas Backis of Vilnius, Lithuania.

Augustinum
– Agostino Vallini, papal vicar for Rome.

Bachara or Becharam
– Bechara Rai, Maronite patriarch.

Basilium Clementem
Baselios Cleemis (Isaac) Thottunkal, major archbishop of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church.

Carolum
– Carlos Amigo Vallejo of Seville, Spain.
– Carlo Caffarra, of Bologna, Italy.
– Karl Lehmann of Mainz, Germany.

Casimirum
– Kazimierz Nycz of Warsaw, Poland.

Christophorum
– Christoph Schonborn of Vienna.

Claudium
– Claudio Hummes, retired prefect of the Congregation for Clergy.

Conradum
– Kurt Koch, president of the Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity.

Crescentium
– Crescenzio Sepe of Naples, Italy.

Daniel or Danielem
– Daniel N. DiNardo of Galveston-Houston.

Dionigium
– Dionigi Tettamanzi of Milan.

Dominicum
– Domenico Calcagno, president of the Administration of the Patrimony of the Holy See.
– Dominik Duka of Prague, Czech Republic.

Donaldum
– Donald W. Wuerl of Washington.

Eduinum
– Edwin F. O’Brien, grand master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulchre.

Emmanuelem
– Manuel Monteiro de Castro, head of the Apostolic Penitentiary.

Ennium
– Ennio Antonelli, retired president of Pontifical Council for the Family.

Ferdinandum
– Fernando Filoni, prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples.

Franciscum
– Francesco Coccopalmerio, president of the Pontifical Council for Legislative Texts.
– Francis E. George of Chicago.
– Francesco Monterisi, retired secretary of the Congregation for Bishops.
– Francisco Robles Ortega of Guadalajara, Mexico.
– Franc Rode, retired prefect of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life.

Franciscum Xaverium
– Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa of Santiago de Chile.

Georgium
– George Alencherry of Ernakulam-Angamaly, major archbishop of Syro-Malabar Catholic Church.
– Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
– George Pell of Sydney.
– Jorge Urosa Savino of Caracas, Venezuela.

Gabrielem
– Gabriel Zubeir Wako of Khartoum, Sudan.

Gerardum
– Geraldo Majella Agnelo of Sao Salvador da Bahia, Brazil.

Godefridum
– Godfried Danneels of Mechelen-Brussels.

Gulielmum
– Willem Jacobus Eijk of Utrecht, Netherlands.
– William Joseph Levada, retired prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

Iacobum
– James M. Harvey, archpriest of the Basilica of St. Paul Outside the Walls.
– Jaime Ortega Alamino of Havana.

Ioachim
– Joachim Meisner of Cologne, Germany.

Ioannem
– Sean Brady of Armagh, Northern Ireland.
– Joao Braz de Aviz, prefect of the Congregation for Institutes of Consecrated Life and Societies of Apostolic Life.
– Juan Cipriani Thorne of Lima, Peru.
– Giovanni Lajolo, retired president of the commission governing Vatican City State.
– John Njue of Nairobi, Kenya.
– John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan of Abuja, Nigeria.
– Sean Patrick O’Malley of Boston.
– Juan Sandoval Iniguez of Guadalajara, Mexico.
– John Tong Hon of Hong Kong.

Ioannem Baptistam
– Giovanni Battista Re, retired prefect of the Congregation for Bishops.
– Jean-Baptiste Pham Minh Man, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Ioannem Claudium
– Jean-Claude Turcotte of Montreal.

Ioannem Ludovicum
– Jean-Louis Tauran, president of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue.

Ioannem Franciscum
– Gianfranco Ravasi, president of the Pontifical Council for Culture.

Ioannem Patricium
– Sean Patrick O’Malley of Boston.

Ioannem Petrum
– Jean-Pierre Ricard of Bordeaux, France.

Iosephum
– Giuseppe Bertello, president of the commission governing Vatican City State.
– Giuseppe Betori of Florence, Italy.
– Josip Bozanic of Zagreb, Croatia.
– Jose da Cruz Policarpo, Lisbon, Portugal.
– Giuseppe Versaldi, president of the Prefecture for the Economic Affairs of the Holy See.

Iulium
– Julio Terrazas Sandoval of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.

Iustinum
– Justin Rigali of Philadelphia.

Isaac
– Baselios Cleemis (Isaac) Thottunkal, major archbishop of the Syro-Malankara Catholic Church.

Laurentium
– Laurent Monsengwo Pasinya of Kinshasa, Congo.

Ivanum
– Ivan Dias, retired prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples.

Leonardum
– Leonardo Sandri, prefect of the Congregation for Eastern Churches.

Marcum
– Marc Ouellet, prefect of the Congregation for Bishops.

Maurum
– Mauro Piacenza, prefect of the Congregation for Clergy.

Nicolaum
– Nicolas Lopez Rodriguez of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

Norbertum
– Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico City.

Odilonem
– Odilo Pedro Scherer of Sao Paulo.

Osvaldum
– Oswald Gracias of Mumbai, India.

Patricium
– Sean Patrick O’Malley of Boston.

Paulum
– Paolo Sardi, a former official in the Vatican Secretariat of State.
– Paul Josef Cordes, retired president of Pontifical Council Cor Unum.
– Paolo Romeo of Palermo, Italy.

Petrum
– Peter Erdo of Esztergom-Budapest, Hungary.
– Peter Turkson, president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace.

Philippum
– Philippe Barbarin of Lyon, France.

Polycarpum
– Polycarp Pengo of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Radulfum
– Raul Vela Chiriboga, retired archbishop of Quito, Ecuador.

Raimundum
– Raymond L. Burke, prefect of the Supreme Court of the Apostolic Signature.
– Raymundo Damasceno Assis of Aparecida, Brazil.

Rainardum
– Reinhard Marx of Munich and Freising, Germany.

Rainerium
– Rainer Maria Woelki of Berlin.

Raphaelem
– Raffaele Farina, retired head of the Vatican Secret Archives and the Vatican Library.

Robertum
– Robert Sarah, president of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum.

Rogerium
– Roger Mahony, retired archbishop of Los Angeles.

Ruben
– Ruben Salazar Gomez of Bogota, Colombia.

Sanctum
– Santos Abril Castello, archpriest of Basilica of St. Mary Major.

Severium
– Severino Poletto of Turin, Italy.

Stanislaum
– Stanislaw Dziwisz of Krakow, Poland.
– Stanislaw Rylko, president of the Pontifical Council for the Laity.

Telesphorum
– Telesphore Toppo, of Ranchi, India.

Tharsicium
– Tarcisio Bertone, secretary of state.

Theodorum
– Theodore-Adrien Sarr of Dakar, Senegal.

Thomam
– Thomas C. Collins of Toronto.

Timotheum
– Timothy M. Dolan of New York.

Valtherum
– Walter Kasper, retired president of the Pontifical Council for Promoting Christian Unity.

Velasium
– Velasio De Paolis, papal delegate overseeing reform of the Legionaries of Christ and Regnum Christi.

Vilfridum
– Wilfrid F. Napier of Durban, South Africa.

Villelmum
– Willem Jacobus Eijk of Utrecht, Netherlands.
– William Joseph Levada, retired prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

Vincentium
– Vinko Puljic of Sarajevo, Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Zenonem
– Zenon Grocholewski, prefect of the Congregation for Catholic Education.

Twelve to watch as cardinals gather in Rome

UPDATES: Here are more names we’ve added to our list of influential cardinals after we published the article below:

– Boston prelate known for humility, humor, crisis management (Cardinal Sean P. O’Malley)

– Italian cardinal sees holiness, prayer as key to vocations (Cardinal Mauro Piacenza)

– Pastor, educator: Genoa’s Cardinal Bagnasco promotes traditional family (Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco)

– Argentine Cardinal Bergoglio was second on each ballot in last conclave (Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio)

——————–

(Originally posted on catholicnews.com)

Editor’s Note: For more on each cardinal, click on the boldface links below.

By Cindy Wooden and Francis X. Rocca
Catholic News Service

VATICAN CITY (CNS) — Wherever journalists and bookmakers may be getting the names on their lists of top candidates for the next pope, it’s not from the cardinals who will actually vote in the election. Both custom and canon law forbid the cardinals to discuss the matter in such detail with outsiders.

Moreover, the true “papabili” — literally, pope-ables — were likely to emerge only after all the worlds’ cardinals began their pre-conclave meetings at the Vatican last week.

One thing is already clear, however: because of their experience and the esteem they enjoy among their peers, certain cardinals are likely to serve as trusted advisers to the rest in the discussions and election.

Here, in alphabetical order, are 12 cardinals expected to have a major voice in the deliberations:

Cardinal Dolan arrives for a general congregation meeting March 7. (CNS/Paul Haring)

– Conventional wisdom has long held that the cardinals will never elect an American pope, lest the leadership of the church appear to be linked with the United States’ economic and geopolitical dominance. But the extroverted and jocular Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan, 63, charmed and impressed many in the College of Cardinals in February 2012 when he delivered the main presentation at a meeting Pope Benedict XVI had called to discuss the new evangelization. The pope himself praised the New York archbishop’s presentation on how to revive the faith in increasingly secular societies as “enthusiastic, joyful and profound.”

– Although not a familiar name in the press, Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo of Esztergom-Budapest, 60, is a major figure among his peers in Europe, the church’s traditional heartland and the region of more than half the cardinal electors. He was elected to a second five-year term as president of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences in 2011.

Cardinal Ouellet arrives for a general congregation meeting March 8. (CNS/Paul Haring)

– Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet, 68, is a member of the Society of St. Sulpice, whose members are, strictly speaking, diocesan priests but which is normally considered a religious order. Hence he is one of only 19 members of religious orders among the cardinal electors, who are overwhelmingly diocesan clergy. He is prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, which coordinates the nomination of bishops in Latin-rite dioceses around the world, so his work has brought him into frequent contact with most of his fellow cardinal-electors. As president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, he is well acquainted with one of the church’s largest and fastest-growing regions. The former archbishop of Quebec, who taught at the John Paul II Institute at Rome’s Pontifical Lateran University, is also a well-respected theologian.

– Italian Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi, 70, president of the Pontifical Council for Culture, was the prelate chosen by Pope Benedict to lead his 2013 Lenten retreat, which will make him a prominent voice at the Vatican in the run-up to the election. The cardinal, a scholar with little direct pastoral experience, has been leading the universal church’s efforts to develop a nonconfrontational dialogue with nonbelievers, trying to make Christianity intelligible to the modern mind and build a reason-based consensus on key moral issues.

Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga (CNS file/Paul Haring)

– Another religious, a Salesian, Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Tegucigalpa, 70, is president of Caritas Internationalis, the umbrella group of national Catholic charities around the world. As a result, many of his peers have come to know the multilingual cardinal as the person spearheading assistance to the neediest of their people. He aroused controversy in 2002 with remarks about clergy sex abuse that struck some as overly defensive of accused priests and the church’s past policies. But he was already widely mentioned as a possible pope before the 2005 conclave that elected Pope Benedict.

– Argentine Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, 69, was born to parents of Italian descent and has maintained strong ties with both Italy and Argentina. As prefect of the Congregation for Eastern Churches, he is familiar with the challenges facing Eastern Catholics and the pastoral concerns of the church in the Middle East. He has worked in the Vatican for more than a dozen years, and previously served as nuncio to Venezuela and then Mexico. His only experience in a parish was a brief assignment shortly after his ordination as a priest.

Cardinal Sarah  (CNS file/Paul Haring)

– Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, 67, is president of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum, which promotes Catholic charitable giving. He has used his leadership to emphasize Pope Benedict’s teaching that Catholic charitable activity must not be simple philanthropy, but an expression of faith, rooted in prayer and Catholic identity. A scripture scholar and former diocesan bishop, he served nine years as secretary of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples.

– Another leading voice of the South American church is 63-year-old Brazilian Cardinal Odilo Scherer of Sao Paulo, Brazil’s largest diocese. The son of German immigrants, he also has strong ties to Rome. He studied philosophy and theology at Rome’s Pontifical Brazilian College and Pontifical Gregorian University and worked as an official of the Congregation for Bishops from 1994 to 2001.

Cardinal Schonborn arrives for a general congregation meeting March 7. (CNS/Paul Haring)

– Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schonborn, 68, has known Pope Benedict for almost 40 years, having studied under him at the University of Regensburg, Germany. Even before his former professor became pope, the cardinal was well known at the Vatican and in wider church circles. He was invited in 1996 to preach Blessed John Paul II’s Lenten retreat and was the main editor of the Catechism of the Catholic Church, published in 1992. As the church in Austria has struggled with declining attendance and calls for change in some of its most basic disciplines, Cardinal Schonborn’s response has received increasing attention, with some praising his prudence and pastoral sensitivity, and others calling for more decisive action.

– Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola, 71, is the archbishop of Milan, the archdiocese led by both Popes Pius XI and Paul VI when they were elected. He previously served as patriarch of Venice, once the see of Blessed John XXIII. The cardinal, a respected academic theologian rather than a popular preacher, has longstanding ties to one of the new church movements, Communion and Liberation, which is based in his archdiocese.

Cardinal Tagle after being made a cardinal last November. (CNS/Paul Haring)

– Philippine Cardinal Luis Tagle of Manila, 55, is one of the youngest and newest members of the College of Cardinals. Although he did not receive his red hat until November 2012, he had already made a name for himself at the world Synod of Bishops on the Word of God in 2008. This leader of one of the world’s fastest-growing churches is a popular speaker with a doctorate in systematic theology and has served on the International Theological Commission, an advisory body to the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.

– Cardinal Peter Turkson is the 64-year-old former archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana, and current president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. The cardinal, a biblical scholar who was active in ecumenical and interreligious dialogue, has frequently appeared on lists of possible popes. He aroused controversy in 2011 with a proposal for a “world central bank” to regulate the global financial industry, and then in October 2012 when he showed bishops at the Vatican a video warning about the growth of Muslim populations in Europe.

Cardinal Wuerl urges Catholics to pray for conclave

ROME (CNS) — At the March 10 Mass he celebrated at his titular church, the Basilica of San Pietro in Vincoli (St. Peter in Chains), Washington Cardinal Donald W. Wuerl urged members of the media  –a large part of the congregation – to get the word out about the importance of praying for the upcoming conclave.

Cardina Wuerl talks to reporters March 10 before Mass. (CNS photo/Robert Duncan)

“Your presence,” he told the camera crews and reporters, “makes it possible for everyone at home to join us in prayer.” He said the cardinal electors particularly need prayers to be sure “the Lord will work through each of us.”

“We need all the prayers we can receive,” he added.

He described the conclave as a “sacred moment for the church” continuing the papal line which goes back 2,000 years.

The cardinal said that because of the oaths the cardinals make, he could not say anything specific about the conclave, only to say it was starting March 12.

In his homily, he spoke of the importance of the sacrament of reconciliation, describing it as an opportunity to be “assured of God’s love and forgiveness.”

He urged those present to seek this sacrament particularly at this time in Lent as a “way to renew in our hearts” God’s forgiveness and experience the grace of God who “never, ever stops waiting for us.”

During Mass several tour groups and random tourists walked along the church’s perimeter to get a closer look of Michelangelo’s statue of Moses at the front right. They could only view it from the side during Mass as a guard kept them from getting a closer view near the altar. The statue, which dates from 1515, was originally intended as part of a 40-statue funeral monument for Pope Julius II.

In a reliquary under the main altar are the chains which give the basilica its name. According to tradition, these blackened chains held St. Peter when he was imprisoned in Rome and Jerusalem..

Cardinal Wuerl said the church, located near the Colosseum, is “very special” to him.

Although he celebrated the Mass in English, he gave remarks in Italian at the beginning and end of Mass and afterward greeted some of the Italians who seemed to know him well.

One couple teased him about the possibility that he might be pope and he politely urged them not to even joke about that.

Boston cardinal draws blockbuster crowd of fans to tiny church

ROME (CNS) — It took a “papabile” American cardinal as guest celebrant one Sunday to fill the pews of a small Roman church, which is normally trafficked only by hordes of backpack-slinging tourists.

Instead of dog-eared guidebooks in hand, people were actually looking for hymnals, extra copies of which had to be fetched from the sacristy by parish assistants.

The narrow church, which holds about 100 people, was packed standing-room only on the Fourth Sunday of Lent with both Italians and Americans, and dozens of journalists.

Cardinal Sean P. O’Malley of Boston visited his titular church of Santa Maria della Vittoria March 10 with the no-nonsense, businesslike air of a pastor who was there simply to preside over a liturgy.

U.S. Cardinal Sean P. O’Malley of Boston visits his titular church, Santa Maria della Vittoria, a tiny church more often teeming with tourists than parishioners. (CNS photo/Carol Glatz) (March 10, 2013)

Wearing his bright scarlet cardinal robes, he alighted from a dark sedan with Vatican City State license plates and strode straight up the steps: no waving or fanfare as he moved confidently through the crowd of cameramen.

Once inside, he put on his cornered-biretta hat and sprinkled holy water as he marched down the center aisle to the sacristy.

Little did he know that, while he was there to celebrate Mass for the local community, the people in the pews and the Discalced Carmelites who run the church were there to unabashedly cheer him on as the next pope.

“Eminence, we wish, and I say this with great hope, that this will be your last visit as titular cardinal,” Discalced Carmelite Father Stefano Guernelli, the church’s rector and former provincial superior, told the cardinal in his opening remarks.

He said they were praying for him to be the next pontiff, “however, without trying to push or overturn the Lord’s plans.”

“But you must promise that if our prayers are answered, your first visit as pope” will be back to “our church and yours, Santa Maria della Vittoria,” he said to rousing applause.

The priest said he had been telling journalists that “Cardinal Sean” is a “kind and friendly pastor, humble yet decisive in his actions because he truly loves the church.”

The only thing going against him “perhaps is that you are a friar and a Capuchin at that,” he said tongue-in-cheek, as the bearded Capuchin cardinal smiled.

Speaking with his deep, measured voice, Cardinal O’Malley said Mass and his homily in near perfect Italian, stumbling just a few times on the language’s tricky polysyllabic terms.

Cardinal O’Malley gave his homily in Italian. He asked for prayers the Holy Spirit would help the cardinal electors choose a pope “who will confirm us in the faith and do the utmost possible to make visible the love of the Good Shepherd.” (CNS photo/Carol Glatz) (March 10, 2013)

He began his homily thanking everyone for coming to pray “for our church in these days that are so important for us.”

Known for a sharp wit delivered with a poker face, the cardinal continued off-the-cuff, talking about the time he took possession of the Roman church in 2006 and teased the Carmelites that he was thinking of taking the church’s famed statue of St. Teresa of Avila, sculpted by Gian Lorenzo Bernini, back to Boston.

But he said the friars told him Napoleon had tried and, like the emperor, he, too, would fail.

“So it seems to me that (the friars) have never forgiven me” because the church rector wants him to become pope, the cardinal said.

“I want to assure him that after the conclave I will come back as your cardinal and perhaps I will take St. Teresa back to Boston,” he insisted with a wry smile.

He imperceptibly then switched gears to his serious side and gave a homily based on the day’s Gospel reading of the Prodigal Son, noting how many children of God today leave their father’s house — the church — because of “ignorance, a lack of feeling welcome, negative experiences, scandals, spiritual mediocrity” and other reasons.

Just like the father in Jesus’ parable, the church too must demonstrate a welcoming evangelical joy toward its lost sheep “without creating a difficult life toward those who have drifted and who ask to return.”

Because often they have suffered a lot after being far from God and they, like all people, are looking for real joy, the kind only God can give, he said.

Lent is the perfect time to return to one’s family “and feel that joy of being at home,” he said.

He ended his 13-minute homily by praying the Holy Spirit would help him and the other cardinal electors choose a new pope “who will confirm us in the faith, do the utmost possible to make visible the love of the Good Shepherd who goes looking for his lost sheep, to heal the sick and to embrace the prodigal son.”

Giulia Varrasso of Rome, who belongs to a nearby parish, said she had come to Santa Maria della Vittoria because she greatly admired the cardinal and wanted “to know him better.”

Cardinal O’Malley was her pick for pope, she said “because he’s a Franciscan” and she loves his humility, witty and laid-back style, and the religious order’s attention to the “weak and vulnerable.”

“I also like that he’s an American,” who can lead the Vatican out of its old ways of doing things and leave behind “the old mechanisms of power,” she said.

He also can renew the church “because he really understands these scandals” and has fought for more transparency, she said.

“I’m cheering for Cardinal Sean,” said Luigi Segoloni, who is originally from near Assisi, the home of St. Francis.

“We need fresh air, enough with these Italians and Europeans, for goodness sake,” said the Roman resident.

The U.S. cardinal is “very good, he made a very good impression with his homily; he has energy and he’s very fatherly,” said Segoloni.

Daughter of St. Paul Sister Germana Santos, who lived in Boston many years, praised the “very courageous measures” the cardinal took after he arrived at an archdiocese that was reeling from the spiritual and financial fallout of the sex abuse crisis.

“He sold all the prelates’ big residences and moved into the cathedral rectory” — a simple residence where he lived among his own priests “giving them an example of humility” and fraternity, she said.

An Italian woman, who asked her name not be used, said she wanted an American for pope.

Cardinal O’Malley “speaks from the heart.” While there are many good homilists out there, “you can feel his sincerity,” she said.